Would an IPO by any other name taste as sweet as Lemonade?

The recent IPO (initial public offering of shares) by Lemonade Insurance was on its face not much different from any other- a filed S-1 that tells the company’s story, advises of potential risks, denotes which firms are acting as advisors or underwriters, provides historic and pro forma financials, and acts as an appetizer for the […]

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NPV be damned- here’s a delightful IPO you can love

Using-Behavioral-Economics-To-Optimize-Pricing-at-Grocery

One can seldom say that reviewing an SEC Form S-1, IPO registration statement, is interesting.  Sure, you can learn much about a company that is planning an initial public stock offering, but that level of excitement is reserved for financial banks and investors.  But that expectation has been shattered by the form recently filed by digital insurer, Lemonade, Inc.  Not only is its filed Prospectus Summary a full eighteen pages long, it contains the words ‘delight’, or ‘delightful’ ten times.  As was the case five years ago, Lemonade has taken what was stodgy and made it, well, different.   image

Patrick Kelahan is a CX, engineering & insurance consultant, working with Insurers, Attorneys & Owners in his day job. He also serves the insurance and Fintech world as the ‘Insurance Elephant’.

Lemonade is a company that started with two entrepreneurs, Daniel Schreiber and Shai Wininger who knew little of insurance, but knew much about launching a company, were veterans of digital innovation, and were experienced in marketing unique concepts.  And, the two determined early on that the administration and selling of insurance was not the key to entry into the market, but that marketing to and building interest from similar insurance neophyte customers was.  In addition, the early vision for the firm was as a peer-to-peer insurer, bypassing the monolithic traditional carrier sells and customer buys model.  The firm’s P2P model was not quite that pure but the concept of mutual benefit remained a cornerstone- if claims are not made in typical frequency then charitable organizations will gain a benefit from surplus.

Fast forward from 2015 to June 2020- the firm’s concept is ingrained within the insurance industry, may just be the most discussed insurance topic other than COVID-19 business interruption, and is now the current talk of the IPO town.

I am not going to belabor an analysis of financials for the firm- right now the most optimistic assessment is there are some fundamentals that are trending in the direction the market would like to see.  The company cedes a majority amount of premiums and claim costs to reinsurers otherwise this conversation would not be occurring.  The firm has been able to leverage the experience and effectiveness levels of officers in building an investment total to date of $480 million (including $300 Mn from SoftBank).  The raise has allowed the firm to grow its geographic footprint to include many US states and now an entry into Europe.  Here is where a typical IPO filing for a financial firm is off track- Lemonade is growing its profits in a wrong direction.  If 2019 indicated a $109 million net loss for the firm, and Q1 for 2020 is showing a $36 million net loss, the growth valuation of $2 billion is more tenuous.  Upon announcement of the IPO there were insurance observers of the InsurTech sort who were asking how they could short the stock offering.

For this article the traditional assessment of the IPO supporting financials will be diminished in importance because few expect Lemonade to be profit generator based on prior year’s financial reports.  A traditional extrapolation of financial value based on NPV of future earnings can’t get past the no worth valuation.  But then, Lemonade has followed a non-traditional path since its inception.

 

Looking back at the advent of its value proposition- digital sales and service founded on cutting edge technology and information analysis, and on the firm’s early adaptation of behavioral economics, a different view can be taken of the IPO action.  The firm engaged a world-renown behavioral economist, Daniel Ariely,  who in collaboration with the founders’ vision leveraged the concept of game theory in selling its premise- insurance as an iteration of the Prisoner’s Dilemma, a decision pathway where no one really wins because there is distrust of the other party in a decision, or game’s outcome.  Daniel Schreiber publicly took the concept further, stating the firm employed a ‘Ulysses Contract’ approach to the distrust relationship, tying its financial hands  such that there would be no ability to succumb to temptation of traditional insurers and denials of coverage being a flow of premiums to a firm’s bottom line.  I have had prior discussions with Mr. Schreiber about same and published perspective here, and while during the past two years game theory and behavioral economics have been not on the firm’s public radar, we just might be seeing the return of the softer sell within the IPO summary.

 

In previously stating the prospectus summary having inclusion of ‘delight’ ten times there was a point to be made- most IPO prospectus summaries provide in a few pages the vision or mission of the firm, how its operational functions are tied to the pursuit of the mission, its financial performance to date and how its future performance is planned to support the investment of those who subscribe to the IPO.

Lemonade does not have the option of leveraging financial results on a sure path to NPV calculable to the IPO proceeds.  It’s early days for the volume of shares offered and the expected price per share to be published, but even the marker amount of $100 million will be eclipsed by 2020 net losses (Q1 net losses already at $37 million.)  IPOs can be used for many reasons, and even though the firm notes that proceeds will be used for growth operations, the proceeds could be applied to ensure conversion of 31 million preferred shares to common at a value that the holders could choose to be an exit value (resell of shares) that is favorable, or perhaps retirement of SoftBank’s $300 million investment in order to add some liquidity to SoftBank’s balance sheet. (This is conjecture only- the author has not specific knowledge of any post IPO scenarios.)

What I suggest- the IPO’s story is being told in the twenty or so pages in a  clever IPO marketing scheme that is not dissimilar to the roll-out and growth of the firm- behavioral economics with a dose of group psychology.  Consider- in the Lemonade prospectus summary text one finds beyond the ten uses of ‘delight’, the following atypical IPO verbiage of:

  • Love– four uses, as in “Why we love insurance”
  • Giveback– four uses, as in “Giveback is a distinctive feature”
  • Graduation– two uses, as in “found in a phenomenon we call ‘graduation’ “
  • Breezy, playful, values, encourage, attractive, and encourage

 

The prospectus summary is less a financial and business conceptual document as it is a comfort manifesto, reassuring potential investors that the purchase of shares is a collective good. It’s no longer the Prisoners’ Dilemma because the firm has built a customer base and industry cohort that trusts the firm and its leaders.  The fact that financial success is not there yet- immaterial if the closed loop data aggregation machine is functioning and claims can be settled virtually and in seconds.  There is a value to the method and that is the apparent underpinning of the offering.  Growth of the digital access concept has driven web traffic to the firm’s site in a pace more than double of three years ago (page views more than quadrupled) and if nothing else, the value of the firm’s domain is in the high five figures 🙂 . Company leadership acknowledges that product mix must evolve (or customers need to graduate to more lucrative lines than renters), CAC cannot remain excessive, and reinsurance ceding of more than 50% of premiums and loss costs can only last so long for a full stack carrier.

A post-COVID environment might be a springboard for a favorable IPO, as might be interest of private equity (plenty of capital in the market), or from existing investors.  The firm’s concept is five years’ old and at the prior threshold of involvement for the co-founders.  Plenty to consider outside of pesky financials.  Many delightful, playful, re-imagined, breezy, loved and attractive concepts to perhaps ensure full subscription of the IPO.

 

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‘Growth’ valuations for startups- losing its allure?

Patrick Kelahan is a CX, engineering & insurance professional, working with Insurers, Attorneys & Owners. He also serves the insurance and Fintech world as the ‘Insurance Elephant’.  There has built during the past few years an InsurTech chase to ‘unicorn’ status  not uniformly based on NPV, but on growth. Fellow Daily Fintech columnist, Ilias Louis […]

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The last will be first, and the first will be last:tension in the InsurTech entrant and incumbency environment

entrants and incumbents

 

 

Funny how things can change- one week riding the funding train, next week sitting in the startup exit car.  Skinny jeans, Vans and untucked shirts change into a wardrobe that has a descriptor- business casual.  Same idea in start-up accounting- paid in option value becomes the eagle flying twice a month and performance bonuses.  Evolving from a role that suggests you handle all tasks to the paint drying on the corner cubicle placard that reads, “Chief Marketing Officer.”  Startup to post-IPO organization, and in time-incumbency. Welcome to quarterly reports and silo culture.  All the same customers, however.

An unexpected tension exists between insurance start-up culture with the unicorn hunt, and the cash flush, ‘we are happy with a combined ratio under 100’ culture of the incumbents- the status of industry legitimacy is pursued but once gained is treated like being in the clique the other players deride.  It’s clear that much of insurance innovation is founded in the existing industry being seen as an unresponsive, callous, cash grabbing, seldom paying monolith.  A product that is sold, seldom bought, with businesses that hide behind clever spokespersons to craft a façade of ‘hip’.

And the legacy monolith?  Always comfortable riding a train of convention.  Think of it- incumbent carriers know the route they traverse, little option to change the route because the route is like a rail track.  Hook up the cars, open the throttle of written premiums, hope there aren’t unexpected steep grades that might depress the profitable results of the trip.  Not that incumbents don’t occasionally start a string of cars that take a new path, but seldom does the main string of cars slow to allow connection of the cars that tried the new path.

Consider the recent comments cited from the Financial Times attributed to UK-based insurer, Aviva’s former CEO, Mark Wilson:

“(Aviva) took space in an old garage in London’s Hoxton Square to house the digital projects that he believed would transform the insurance company. The idea was that, away from the actuaries and the bureaucrats at head office, trendy millennials with coding skills could let their creativity loose and turn Aviva into an insurer fit for the future.” 

Not waiting for that parallel-running train to catch speed, the current CEO for the firm, Maurice Tulloch, suggests the firm’s course remains upon the main track, “and (Aviva) is set to take a more hard-nosed look at the garage and the projects that are housed there.”  Seemingly not patient enough for results to take hold, and in probability a disconnect between the ‘garage’ and the existing culture.

Even the Street is discouraging alternate routs for the insurance incumbent. From the same article is found:

“Huge amounts of money were being invested (at Aviva) and it looks like it got out of control,” said Barrie Cornes, analyst at Panmure Gordon. “Reining it in is the right thing to do. They need to look at the costs and it wouldn’t surprise me if they looked to cut some of the expense,” he added.  Looks like?  Based on what?

It was controversial how much he talked about it. He said that pulling back some of the digital investments could add 5 percent a year to Aviva’s earnings per share. Few people expect the garage to close, at least in the short term. Aviva is not the only insurance company to sharpen the focus of its tech investments in recent years.  (thanks, Graham Spriggs for the share of the article)

Five percent per year additional profit by reining in the firm’s potential future.  Huh.   If “All the Insurance Players will be InsurTech”, by InsurTech influencer, Matteo Carbone voices the insurance industry’s future, a five percent savings to the bottom line might be better spent on maintaining competitive advantage by leveraging tech and process innovation.  It’s that tension between quarterly expectations and seeing down the road.

Along the same line, incumbents that take the path of innovation often stray from the InsurTech digital path when results aren’t immediate.  A key player in the US P&C market that touts itself as a data company has initiated many digital service changes; same company however reaches for the analog diagnosis methods when unexpected (read as not positive) results are experienced.  Digital/AI innovations should be addressed using the same AI if there’s to be an effective feedback loop, right?  Not if the quarterly results demon is waiting.   No naming names because all are guilty of the method- it’s too hard to change right away.

A recent announcement by Lemonade regarding the firm considering exercising an IPO, further exemplifies how a poster-child insurance start-up may migrate to insurance ‘legitimacy’, and potentially step aside from its game theory approach to serving customer needs.  The very basis of the firm’s leading principle supporting its charitable giving approach to claim handling/premiums, the Ulysses Contract, may be preempted post-IPO by the quarterly ratio chase and Daniel Schreiber’s hands will be tied no more, and will become available to take the cash or craft the next opportunity.  The firm has traveled far from the day where the first seventy renters’ policies were observed rolling in through the company website.

Not that there aren’t innovating companies/startups that have either migrated to conventional insurance forms through investment exit or by IPO- see German Family Insurance-Deutsche-Familienversicherung, the first European InsurTech IPO, or firms that have made effective partnerships with incumbent carriers, e.g., Lucep PTE that forged an effective working basis with MetLife Portugal .  Each of those firms found effective ways to bridge the perceived gap between innovation and incumbency.

It just doesn’t matter which insurance route your organization is following- incumbent or entrant, each customer is dear, all firms need to act with a sense of customer service urgency.  Today’s startup chasing seed money is next year’s IPO, and in quick time an incumbent that even newer entrants are focused on disrupting.  And there’s no reason skinny jeans can’t be worn at one’s corner cubicle while the wearer peruses the corporate 10-Q or ECOFIN dictates.

image source

Patrick Kelahan is a CX, engineering & insurance professional, working with Insurers, Attorneys & Owners. He also serves the insurance and Fintech world as the ‘Insurance Elephant’.

I have no positions or commercial relationships with the companies or people mentioned. I am not receiving compensation for this post.

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$100 Billion++ , is Softbank’s Vision fund blinding the market?

The tech IPO market is having a bonanza year so far and NASDAQ hit an all time high in April. However, confidence in the tech giants and their ethics in dealing with consumer data is perhaps at rock bottom. Cheap money is causing ballooning valuations. With Zoom, Pinterest, Lyft, Slack, Uber, WeWork all going for the big day at the market, are we witnessing a repeat of the dot com boom and bust?

Image Source

The other question to ask is “Is Technology the new Banking?”. As they say, “Follow the money” to catch the bad guys in crime stories. The other way to look at it is, when people make good money, they are often portrayed as the bad guys. The world loves to see them fall. Behavioural and philosophical points aside, several market trends are shouting out for caution.

Analytics company Intensity’s April prediction puts the chances of a recession happening in the next 18 months at 98.9% and in the next 24 months at 99.9%. They are expecting a recession to happen in October 2019. Out of curiosity, I went through all their previous months’ predictions, to check for consistency. The confidence levels had increased steeply between Aug-Sep 2018, and have stayed high since.

Irrational exuberance in the markets is on display yet again. The Crypto bubble burst two years ago, but didn’t cause much of a pain as the market cap was not big enough. But with tech stocks driven by late stage VCs like Softbank, we have more to lose.

Global debt levels are at an all time high at $244 Trillion, and almost everyday economists are writing about a crisis triggered by debt markets.

One of the key trends over the last two years in the VC industry is the rise of late stage venture funds. Softbank led the boom, with Sequioa and others following up with relatively modest sized funds to catch “Unicorns” before their big day in the public markets. The strategy is to get in, pump the firms with steroids and fatten them up for the markets to consume. In the process, make some huge multiples.

Softbank’s investment timeline: Source, Crunchbase

Some stats around the Softbank fund

  • $100 Billion to invest
  • ~$70 Billion deployed so far in about two years,
  • $15 Billion more
  • $10 Billion in Uber and $5 Billion in WeWork
  • Improbable, NVidia, Grab, Kabbage, Flipkart, Oyo, Slack, PingAn, Alibaba and more recently OakNorth are some big names in the porftfolio
  • $45 Billion from Saudi’s Sovereign Wealth Fund represents the biggest investor in the Softbank Vision Fund.

However, both Uber and WeWork have struggled to demonstrate a sustainable business model inspite of their rise. The Growth vs Profitability conundrum remains, and these two might well be case studies on how not to spend VC money, if (when?) their “Going-Public” goes sour.

The Softbank Vision fund could also be a case study of “How not to do Venture Capital”. As a late stage Venture Capital investor, they have an opportunity to look for firms with robust business models and help them go public.

One bright spot is their investment into OakNorth, a UK based Fintech, who tripled their profits in 2018.

The strategy with firms like WeWork or Uber should have been to identify where the business model needed tweaking and pivoting. That could be achieved with $100 Billion in the bank. As a fund with so much capital, they have a responsibility to make healthy VC investment decisions. Not just for their investors, but also for the markets.

I am sure Softbank will make handsome multiples when some of these shaky businesses go public. However, the success these firms managed with private money, would be hard to replicate in the stock market. If a few of them fail, that would trigger pain.

There is enough negative PR about the tech industry’s lack of ethics, diversity and how they manage data monopoly. Creating a bubble, riding it and exiting it before a market crash might just make Tech the New Banking. Softbank might have accelerated that process.

Arunkumar Krishnakumar is a Venture Capital investor at Green Shores Capital focusing on “Sustainable Deeptech Investments” and a podcast host.

I have no positions or commercial relationships with the companies or people mentioned. I am not receiving compensation for this post.

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